28 November 2024

Fanny Bon

The Green Deal: innovation, geopolitics, and the future of industry in Europe

On Tuesday night, we had the honor of hosting Diederik Samsom at our office on Lange Voorhout for the event “The Green Deal: What’s Next?”. As the former Chief of Staff to European Commissioner Frans Timmermans (2019-2024), Samsom played a key role in shaping the European Green Deal. With the recent European and American elections in mind, we discussed the current state of the Green Deal and the crucial role of politics and industry in shaping the future.

Atypical climate policy resilience through crises

Samsom delivered an inspiring talk about how the Green Deal has withstood two global crises: the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. This resilience is remarkable, as climate policy is often considered less urgent. He highlighted the scale of the current wave of innovation and emphasized that while the climate crisis is irreversible, the world’s capacity for innovation is a reason for optimism. Technologies, predominantly artificial intelligence (AI), offer hope for accelerating sustainable solutions.

Lessons from the pandemic and Ukraine

According to Samsom, the war in Ukraine was a wake-up call for Europe. It was a harsh lesson for the lack of focus on the supply chains for sustainable technologies, such as wind turbines, in the original Green Deal. Just as Europe was dependent on other countries for vaccines during the pandemic, the conflict underscored the need for strategic independence. Samsom stressed that Europe must now bring production chains closer to home. This realization is now firmly embedded in European policy.

The Draghi report and Europe’s path forward

Samsom also touched on the influential Draghi report, which is shaping new European policies following the elections. He noted that the Netherlands currently plays a less prominent role in Europe, while Germany, as an industrial powerhouse, appears to be steering the course. Germany’s upcoming elections will be critical not just for the country itself, but for the future of European industry as well.

He also explained why timing, alongside strong content, has been essential for the Draghi report’s traction. Samsom referred to the Brussels phenomenon of the “magic summer.” During the relatively quiet policy period before a new Commission takes office, top officials have the space to draft policies that reflect what they believe must change after four years in the political whirlwind. In 2019, this led to the Green Deal; in 2024, it resulted in the Draghi Report. One might wonder: what will emerge five years from now?

Success stories in innovation

One highlight of Samsom’s talk was his example of offshore wind energy in the Netherlands. He recounted the political courage in 2012 to invest in the sector despite uncertainties. At the time, the industry predicted a 40% cost reduction within ten years—a target that was far exceeded. Samsom emphasized that similar bold initiatives are needed at the European level, such as in floating offshore wind, heat pumps, and batteries. While projects like Northvolt faced challenges, setbacks are an inherent part of the innovation process.

Competing on the global stage

Samsom pointed to challenges in competing with China and the United States. Europe has different strengths and must make strategic choices. Rather than striving for dominance in all technologies, the EU must accept that it cannot be a global leader in every area. While this geopolitical reality makes the energy transition more expensive, Europe is uniquely positioned to bear these costs.

A call to industry

Samsom concluded with a provocative question: is European industry ready for the challenges ahead? This was followed by a discussion with leaders from companies like Intergas and Warmtelinq about their visions and plans for the energy transition. The event reaffirmed that Europe is at a pivotal moment. With the right collaboration between politics and industry, and by building on the innovation potential Samsom so vividly described, enormous opportunities lie within reach.

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28 November 2024

Fanny Bon

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